RIP Climate Etc.

by Judith Curry

It’s time to declare victory against climate stupidity and move on.

Well, the definition of victory here is about as fuzzy as that for the Iran war. Here is a summary of why Climate Etc. is being euthanized:

Major progress has been made in the climate debate and the political climate has changed
My interests have evolved in other directions
The logistics and cost of keeping the blog running are substantial.

State of the Climate Wars

There have been some decisive battles in the past two years, notably President Trump’s election, the DOE Climate Report, and widespread acknowledgement that RCP8.5 is an implausible emissions scenario. As a result, many news agencies have dropped or substantially reduced their climate desk, we don’t hear about climate change so much in the media (particularly as related to extreme weather events). Also, we can’t underestimate the impact of substantially reduced funding for climate-related NGOs, with USAID and other funds drying up.

The leaders of the climate alarmism movement have not conceded defeat but have done much whining, notably over President Trump and the RCP8.5 scenario. They are still trying to discredit the authors of the DOE Report. Triggered by the DOE Report, they have mostly stopped flogging the warming/extreme weather link, although there is a hardcore group that is committed to extreme event attribution as a mechanism to support litigation against fossil fuel companies. With the demise of the extreme weather link, the climate alarmists are now focused on climate “tipping points,” which simply doesn’t resonate with the public (extreme weather events were much more alarming).

But most importantly, the whole issue has lost its political relevance. During the past several months we have watched the entire world panic over loss of access to Middle Eastern oil, and major concerns raised about the need for massively more electricity to support data centers. Putting a tourniquet around our energy supply in the name of eliminating CO₂ emissions is a much worse idea now than it was even a few years ago, and that seems to be widely recognized (even in Europe). Most tellingly, the World Economic Forum (WEF) has dropped climate change as an issue, now focusing on AI (and health).

We are perhaps at an inflection point; one can only hope that the climate enterprise will redirect its efforts away from flogging the CO₂ climate control knob mantra and towards understanding regional climate variability, particularly as influenced by natural variability, to support efforts at reducing vulnerability to weather extremes. And figure out how to better work with nature to support our needs for food, water, energy.

JC moving on

When I was planning my retirement for Georgia Tech, I viewed Climate Etc. as a hedge against becoming bored in my retirement. Ha! Seems that it is impossible for me to become bored, too many interesting things to do and to learn about and to ponder.

After publishing my book Climate Uncertainty and Risk, and co-authoring the DOE Climate Report (I have prepared revisions to my sections, who knows when this will ever be published), I frankly don’t have much more to say on the topic of the climate wars. I have no interest in battling with the likes of Michael Mann, Andrew Dessler, et al. (does anybody still care what they have to say?)

Apart from the climate wars, I remain very interested in the fascinating and complex climate system, I erratically consume new research as I come across it (which can be pretty random sometimes). But most of climate science has become BORING . . . too much mega-modeling and politicking, and not enough thinking. In any event, I no longer have an interest in writing for the public on these topics.

My professional interests are more focused on extreme weather on timescales from hours to a year, which is the focus of my company Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN), along with decision making under uncertainty and risk science. It’s a fascinating time for weather forecasting, and CFAN is deeply immersed on the new opportunities afforded by AI. I write reports on a range of related topics, which are sent to CFAN’s clients (they are not made public). I continue to do consulting on climate-related topics, supporting litigation and developing regional, decadal scale scenarios to support risk assessment for specific client needs.

I’be been pretty quiet on twitter (I can’t bring myself to call it X) for the last several months, maybe I should step up my commentary there — I still have alot to say, and short comments responding to a paper or news item is about the right level of effort at this point.

Now that my granddaughter is in high school (yes she is very interested in science), I have been paying more attention to what is going on at the universities, which I abandoned in disgust almost a decade ago.

Personally, after a big downsize and moving into a much smaller and simpler place, Peter and I are focused on our new dog Lucy, after our previous dogs Bruno and Rosie succumbed to old age. And establishing the garden at our new place.

A peaceful life with family and friends, exploring the world and its new developments from my laptop, and having a blast with AI.

Blog logistics and costs

Climate Etc. is a really old blog in terms of blog years – since 2010. Since then, WordPress has modernized and upgraded. Hacking/security has become a growing issue. The way that Climate Etc. was originally set up is fairly obsolete. Starting in 2022, the blog started having technical issues. WordPress required new plugins for the website to operate in the way that I had been using it. Not sure how many of you noticed, but there have been 2 major blog crashes, and periodically things would stop working such as commenting.

I found a company that would trouble shoot the blog, fix as needed, deal with all the WordPress cr@p and security issues. In looking at my account, over the past 4 years there have been 19 tickets opened, for a total cost of $16K. Now, could I have found someone trustworthy and capable to take care of the blog that would have been cheaper? Maybe, but I’ve frankly just lost interest.

I have set up an account on Substack; if I am ever motivated to resume blogging, that is where I will be. I can also make extended posts on twitter (X) although that is more awkward for anything at all technical. Anything newsworthy that I write I will send to WUWT.

But frankly, beyond this current post I’m not seeing any blogging or other public writing in my future.

Eulogy

Climate Etc. isn’t dead yet, but it is in hospice, and all life support is being removed (I’m not paying any more $$ to support the blog). We’ll see how long the patches, etc. that I’ve already paid for will keep the site accessible.

An experiment that started in 2010 in the wake of ClimateGate, Climate Etc. has exceeded my wildest expectations. It has been one of the highlights of my career, and I am endlessly grateful to all of you who have participated here (especially guest bloggers) and to the new friends and colleagues that I have found from the blog. My book Climate Uncertainty and Risk is a culmination of the topics that we have explored on the blog, and is the legacy of this blog.

While writing this post, I have reminisced about the denizens and “characters” that have come and gone on this blog. An amazing cross section of people with diverse expertises from many different parts of the world.

My deepest thanks to all of the guest posters and commenters that have contributed to making Climate Etc. a vibrant, stimulating and occasionally influential place. My very best wishes to each of you.

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