With nine days to go, this is a rare opportunity to hear a prominent participant in the international climate debate in person. Drawing on more than thirty years of research, Pielke will explore what the evidence tells us, how scientific findings are communicated and how they are used in policy. Each lecture will last approximately 45 minutes, followed by around 15 minutes for questions from the audience.

An independent voice in the climate debate

Pielke accepts that the climate is changing, that CO₂ plays an important role and has advocated reducing CO₂ emissions. At the same time, he has frequently criticised aspects of how climate science is communicated and used in policy. On X, he describes himself as an “undisciplined scholar”.

In 2024, he left his professorship at the University of Colorado Boulder and joined the American Enterprise Institute, a leading US think tank. He continues to publish in the peer-reviewed literature and writes The Honest Broker on Substack, which has more than 40,000 subscribers across 180 countries.

His work makes this afternoon relevant to people with different views on climate science and policy. You do not need to agree with Pielke, or with Clintel, to benefit from hearing his arguments and considering the evidence for yourself.

Extreme weather and the cost of disasters

Pielke has long argued that most categories of extreme weather, including hurricanes, floods and drought, have not shown a clear global increase in frequency or intensity. His assessments are consistent with those of the IPCC. This does not mean that all weather extremes are unchanged: distinctions between different types of events and between global and regional trends remain important.

He has also developed methods to compare economic damage from extreme weather consistently over time. Population growth and increasing wealth can raise disaster losses even when the weather itself has not become more extreme. His work shows that global damage from extreme weather has not risen as a share of the economy.

The lectures will provide an opportunity to hear how Pielke approaches these questions and why the distinction between rising financial losses and changing weather matters for public debate and policy.

RCP8.5 and the future of climate scenarios

In recent years, Pielke has repeatedly criticised continued use of the high-end RCP8.5 emissions scenario, which he regards as outdated. The climate science community has moved away from that scenario in its latest work. Pielke welcomes this development, but warns that the new high-end scenario remains implausible.

The issue has particular relevance in the Netherlands, where the high scenario used by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, KNMI, is still based on RCP8.5. That choice has been the subject of parliamentary questions. Pielke will discuss climate scenarios and how their underlying assumptions influence research, communication and policy.

Science and political pressure

Another central theme is the politicisation of climate science. Pielke has described some uses of climate science in public debate as “noble cause corruption” and has called for greater objectivity and transparency. His concerns centre on maintaining scientific integrity when research becomes entangled with political objectives.

For anyone interested in the relationship between science and policy, this is a chance to hear a researcher who has spent decades working at that boundary. Supporters, critics and curious newcomers are all welcome.

Programme and live translation

Doors open at 13:30 for coffee and tea. The first lecture runs from approximately 14:00 to 14:45, followed by around 15 minutes for questions. After a break at 15:00, the second lecture begins at 15:30 and runs until approximately 16:15, again followed by around 15 minutes for questions. From 16:30, visitors can stay for drinks at their own expense.

Both lectures will be delivered in English. AI-assisted live audio translation is available via your own smartphone, for example in German. If you wish to listen to a translation, please bring your smartphone and your own headphones or earbuds.

Easy to reach by train or car

The venue is Antropia on the De Reehorst estate, Hoofdstraat 8, 3972 LA Driebergen. It is only a few minutes’ walk from Driebergen-Zeist railway station and is easily accessible by public transport and car. Q-Park Station P+R Driebergen-Zeist is nearby.

Tickets and the offer for new Friends of Clintel

Standard tickets cost €35. Existing Friends of Clintel pay €25 and have received a personal discount code. New Friends joining from €100 per year can receive up to two complimentary tickets as their welcome gift, instead of the usual complimentary book.

Reserve your place for Sunday 11 October and hear Roger Pielke Jr. discuss the research behind his contributions to the climate debate.