Can We Declare The Hurricane Hypothesis To Be Falsified?
Can we now declare that the hypothesis that increased global temperatures cause increased hurricane frequency and intensity has been definitively falsified? And if not, when can we declare it, Francis Menton wonders.
Source: Shutterstock
Francis Menton
Date: 1 October 2026
You know the mantra: Human caused climate change, driven by burning fossil fuels and adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, causes an increase in the frequency and severity of major storms, like hurricanes. When major hurricanes come along, as they regularly do, the promoters of this mantra immediately claim an ability to “attribute” the storm and/or its intensity to the ongoing human-caused warming.
For example, last October we had Hurricane Melissa, a Category 5 storm that struck Jamaica and other Caribbean islands. As soon as Melissa had passed, an organization calling itself World Weather Attribution promptly came out with an analysis blaming the storm and its intensity on “climate change.” From the AP, November 6, 2025:
Melissa was one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes to make landfall and brought destructive weather to Jamaica, Haiti, Dominican Republic and Cuba, causing dozens of deaths across the Caribbean. . . . The rapid analysis by World Weather Attribution found that climate change increased Melissa’s maximum wind speeds by 7% and made the rainfall near the center of the storm 16% more intense. The scientists also wrote that the temperature and humidity in which the storm intensified were made six times more likely due to climate change compared to a pre-industrial world.
Small problem
Perhaps that seemed plausible at the time. But this year the mantra that human-induced climate change is the main cause of destructive hurricanes has run into a small problem. Here we are on September 29, and there has not yet been a single hurricane that has formed in the North Atlantic. Nor are there any tropical disturbances or depressions that appear likely to turn into hurricanes over the next week or two. Here are the data from the National Hurricane Center through today. Key statistics: Number of hurricanes — 0 (5 fewer than the 1991-2020 normal); number of major hurricanes — 0 (2 fewer than the 1991-2020 normal); total ACE (accumulated cyclone energy) — 10.4 (89% less than the 1991-2020 normal).
The University of Colorado has a tropical meteorology project that tracks hurricane data and compares it to 30-year norms. Here is their chart up to today for this ACE thing, compared to the 1991-2020 30-year average:
As the chart shows, typically about 75% of the cyclonic energy for the season has occurred by the end of September. And yet here we are on September 29 with ACE so far this year at barely over 10% of normal. This year’s ACE to date is by far the lowest in the satellite era that began in 1966. (Prior to 1966 there are a very few years with lower known ACE, but without the satellites there could have been other undetected storms.)
Temperature
And it’s not like this unexpected hurricane drought can be blamed on a sudden drop in temperatures. Depending on your data source, summer 2026 was either the warmest summer on record, or at least close to it. For example, from Berkeley Earth, September 24:
August 2026 was the warmest August on record, with a global average of 1.71 ± 0.11 °C (3.07 ± 0.20 °F) above the 1850–1900 average, ahead of August 2023. It was also the 2nd warmest month of any kind in our record.
From NASA, September 17:
[The U.S. experienced] the warmest June through August in the contiguous United States in a 132-year record, according to NOAA. The three-month period in 2026 was 0.4ºF warmer than the previous records, set in 1936 and 2021.
I have previously criticized the quality of the temperature records kept by NOAA, NASA, and Berkeley Earth. However, their records are prominent among the ones used to generate alarm about climate change and about supposedly increasing hurricane frequency and intensity. And even the UAH satellite temperature record shows that August 2026 was relatively a very warm month, although not the warmest on record.
So my question is: Can we now declare that the claim (hypothesis) that increased global temperatures cause increased hurricane frequency and intensity has been definitively falsified? And if we can’t declare that today based on the hurricane drought to date, when can we declare it?
As I have written many times on this site, the essence of any hypothesis claiming to be “science” is that it must be subject to falsification. Any scientist who is not a charlatan will state his hypothesis in a form that is subject to falsification, and will clearly state the criteria of data which, if it emerged, would be sufficient to falsify the hypothesis.
Cult
You can immediately tell that members of the climate “science” cult are not real scientists by the way that they bob and weave and shuck and jive a hundred different ways to avoid stating their claims in a way that is falsifiable. But they have gotten themselves out on a limb with the endlessly repeated mantra that global warming is causing increased frequency and intensity of hurricanes. Here are just a few examples.
From the Environmental Defense Fund (undated, but apparently from 2025):
As our climate warms, we’re experiencing stronger winds, higher storm surges and record rainfalls during hurricane season — which is also why these storms are becoming more destructive and costly. . . . As ocean temperatures rise, evaporation increases, adding more moisture to the air. Hurricanes that travel over these warmer waters can draw in more heat and water vapor, fueling the storms. That means heavier rainfall, stronger winds and more flooding when the storms hit land.
From Earth Justice, July 28, 2025:
Human activity is causing rapid changes to our global climate that are contributing to extreme weather conditions. . . . Hurricanes are growing more powerful as global temperatures rise because these storm systems draw their energy from warm ocean water.
And even the government got into the act. From NASA Climate Change, October 23, 2024 (before the Trump administration came back into power — but the page is still up):
The effects of human-caused global warming are happening now, are irreversible for people alive today, and will worsen as long as humans add greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. . . . Hurricanes Will Become Stronger and More Intense. Scientists project that hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates will increase as the climate continues to warm.
Clowns
All these clowns, and everyone else who has made these predictions, needs to be called to account. Has the prediction that warmer temperatures would lead to more frequent and more severe hurricanes been falsified? If not why not? If it hasn’t been falsified by the data from this year’s hurricane season to date, when will it be falsified? Is a full hurricane season without a single hurricane sufficient? Why not?
The fact is that the claim (hypothesis) that warmer temperatures lead to more frequent and more severe hurricanes has already been falsified, whether they will admit it or not. By failing to admit it, they just confirm that they are charlatans rather than scientists.
This article was published first on Manhattan Contrarian on 29 September 2026.
Francis Menton
As of December 31, 2015, Francis Menton retired after 40+ years (31 as a partner) with the law firm of Willkie Farr & Gallagher LLP. After that, he could devote more time to his blog Manhattan Contrarian. He writes ‘rebellious’ posts from the West Village neighborhood in Manhattan, where, according to Menton, they suffer “from a stifling political and ideological orthodoxy”. You can follow Menton on Twitter by clicking this link.
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