India Builds a ‘Fossil Future’
While Western governments continue to speak the language of net zero, India is rapidly expanding coal, oil and natural gas production to secure long-term energy security and economic growth. By strengthening hydrocarbon trade with the United States and other partners, India is building what the author calls a ‘fossil future’, prioritizing reliable and affordable energy over climate pledges.
Coal-fired plant in Gandhinagar, India (Source: Shutterstock)
Vijay Jayaray
Date: 25 February 2026
In 2022, Alex Epstein released ‘Fossil Future’, his treatise on why humanity requires more coal, oil and natural gas to flourish. When the book appeared, the Biden administration was making extravagant pledges to fund global climate initiatives. Executives of major financial institutions and energy firms were making theatrical commitments to reducing their use and production of fossil fuels.
But four years later, those same industry titans are scrambling for excuses to delay or abandon net zero goals and seeking to develop the energy sources they had publicly disavowed. Business leaders cite supply chain complexities, technological barriers and cost overruns. Some even acknowledge that fossil fuels are a necessity of modern life.
However, for national governments, reversing course is complicated by entanglements in the bureaucratic web of international climate agreements. Hence, they maintain the language of action – as though they could control something as huge and complex as the climate system –while systematically securing long-term supplies of fossil fuels and expanding hydrocarbon infrastructure.
No country displays this pragmatism better than India, which has quietly delayed its net zero commitments to a distant 2070. Behind a green veneer, India doubles down on every form of useful hydrocarbon available. In doing so, it has emerged as a key export market for U.S. liquified natural gas (LNG) and a bellwether for global energy reality.
Coal Reality Quashes Green Illusion
India plans to increase by 2035 its coal-power capacity by 46%. Indian state electricity distributors are signing contracts with delivery dates in 2030 – the year climate alarmists claimed coal would be on its deathbed. Some incentives for clean energy projects have been withdrawn.
A senior analyst with Wood Mackenzie recently admitted they have revised projections for coal-fired power generation in India. They now expect the peak to occur in the early 2040s, pushing it back from their previous outlook of the 2030s. Do not be surprised when the new date is abandoned for a still later one.
US-India Energy Bonanza
New Delhi recognizes that energy sovereignty requires a diverse portfolio of reliable partners. This realization has revived India-U.S. energy trade, breathing life into ties that suffered from a year of geopolitical friction. In fiscal year 2025, bilateral hydrocarbon trade between the two nations surged to nearly $14 billion, with increases in volume across crude oil, LNG and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).
At the India Energy Expo conference in January, Indian energy companies expressed strong interest in securing equity participation in U.S. projects for LNG liquefaction. They are targeting facilities currently under construction or nearing final investment decisions. India sees U.S. gas as a cornerstone of its energy security for decades to come.
India is also pursuing domestic oil exploration with a vigor that should shame Western nations that have banned fracking. Oil India has identified the Andaman and Nicobar Islands as a new frontier for oil and gas exploration. Simultaneously, U.S. companies are ramping up their presence in India’s upstream sector, partnering across the entire exploration and production value chain.
In addition, India is keen on finalizing a bilateral energy engagement with Japan and already has Japanese companies participating in development of 13 sedimentary basins.
Surprising some with its interest in developing fossil fuels, a liberal Canadian government had its natural resources minister meet with an Indian counterpart to finalize plans to supply more crude oil, LNG and LPG in return for refined petroleum products from India.
Even Europe, the Vatican of climate religion, is bowing to necessity. The anti-fossil EU lobby has spent years trying to strangle hydrocarbon trade, yet deals involving Indian refined products continue to advance. Europe needs diesel and jet fuel, and Europeans do not care if the crude originated in a well that their own regulations would ban. India processes the oil, and Europe buys the product, outsourcing “emissions” while keeping its economies running.
The United States has a tremendous opportunity here. It has the resources India needs and the technology to help them burn it more cleanly and efficiently. But more importantly, the Trump administration shares the subcontinent’s interest in a world of abundant and affordable energy.
The ‘Fossil Future’ is being built by India one coal plant at a time, along with myriad contracts for oil and natural gas development.
This commentary by Vijay Jayaray was first published at RealClear Markets on February 20.
Vijay Jayaraj
Vijay Jayaraj is a Science and Research Associate at the CO2 Coalition, Fairfax, Virginia. He holds an M.S. in environmental sciences from the University of East Anglia and a postgraduate degree in energy management from Robert Gordon University, both in the U.K., and a bachelor’s in engineering from Anna University, India. He served as a research associate with the Changing Oceans Research Unit at University of British Columbia, Canada.
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India Builds a ‘Fossil Future’
While Western governments continue to speak the language of net zero, India is rapidly expanding coal, oil and natural gas production to secure long-term energy security and economic growth. By strengthening hydrocarbon trade with the United States and other partners, India is building what the author calls a “fossil future,” prioritizing reliable and affordable energy over climate pledges.
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