As Germany’s heating gas supply becomes increasingly tense and nears emergency low levels, policymakers will likely blame a “colder than normal winter.”

But that claim will not hold. The real reason: It is what the Wall Street Journal called in January, 2019, the “World’s Dumbest Energy Policy” . However, since 2019, Germany’s energy policy has gotten even worse — much worse –going from the dumbest to simply hardcore dumbass. There’s no other grade to assign here.

From dumbest to hardcore dumbest

Since 2019, Germany not only stopped producing reliable, cheap and CO2-free nuclear-powered electrcity, but has since cut off its cheap supply from big bad Russia. The consequence: the heating gas supply is now close to running out and it’s only the end of January. A crisis is looming.

According to the online “Initiative Energien Speichern (INES) site here, the natural gas storage level is currently down to a measly 32.7%. Experts warn that the critical level of 20%, a point where pressures become too low to ensure adequate supply, will be reached in as little as 3 weeks.

Image cropped at INES

Gas Emergency Plan

If Germany’s gas storage fall to 20% in February, as now expected, the country will be in a serious but planned-for situation. Under current German law and the Gas Emergency Plan (Notfallplan Gas), specific protocols will be triggered to prioritize human lives and essential services.

Industry facing mandatory shutdown

Under German and EU law, private households are classified as “protected customers;” which means the state is legally required to prioritize them. As the storage levels become extremely low, the government will have to cut off gas to heavy industry, power plants, and large commercial users. This would have enormous economic repercussions.

Overall, Germany has three alert levels. If storage hit 20% and supply is deemed insufficient for the remainder of the winter, the government will have to declare the third and highest level: the Emergency Level. In this case, the Federal Network Agency (Bundesnetzagentur) becomes the “federal load distributor, and will take control of the gas market and decide who gets gas and who does not. In this case, the agency issues orders to large industrial consumers to reduce or stop their gas intake.

20% fill level means less gas flows

As already mentioned, the real risk of low storage isn’t just “running out” of gas molecules; rather it is a loss of system pressure. Gas storage facilities need a certain amount of “cushion gas” to maintain the pressure required to push gas into the pipelines. If storage falls too low, the speed at which gas can be withdrawn slows down. This is why the government has to step in early to manage demand.

Summary

Under almost any realistic scenario involving a 20% storage level, which now appears unavoidable, the government has to force industries to shut down to ensure that homes, school and emergency services continue. The main consequence of a 20% storage is a severe economic hit.

This is, in large part, the consequence of Germany’s ideologically insane adoption of the radical Energiewende: transitioning to green energy no matter what the costs are.

Maybe president Trump will step in and bail out Germany by supplying LNG.

February will be a suspenseful month!